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Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board
The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Here's a scouting report covering a few relevant themes at play heading into the second quarter. The tenacious tape The behavior of the market itself is perhaps the strongest selling point for a bullish outlook from here. After the S & P has returned 10% or more in a first quarter? The index continued higher the following quarter nine of those 11 and was up the remainder of the year all but once. All but one of the previous episodes saw the market higher nine months later, which in this case would take it through 2024.
Persons: It's, YTD, we've, it's, , Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Organizations: Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Eaton Corp
The ongoing decline in China's US bond holdings is not as big as it seems, according to Ned Davis Research. "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," NDR said. "The rationale for using these conduits is that when added to China's Treasury holdings, they closely track China's foreign exchange reserves." "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," Kalish said. AdvertisementOne person who's not concerned about China reducing its Treasury holdings is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: Ned Davis, , Joseph Kalish, Kalish, who's, Janet Yellen, Xi Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, US, Treasury Locations: China, Beijing, Belgium, Luxembourg, San Francisco
According to Deloitte, the consumer spending slowdown is already starting. "The stellar US economic growth recorded in the third quarter was largely due to the strong growth in consumer spending. However, it is widely expected that consumer spending will decelerate in the holiday season, thereby putting financial stress on retailers and their suppliers." Spending intentions have plummetedThe negative trend in retail sales could continue, as spending intentions among Americans have plummeted over the past few months, according to Deloitte's spending intentions index. Americans' spending intentions are the lowest they've been all year.
Persons: , Ira Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Deloitte, Service, Wall, Conference, Survey
The swift rise in long-term US Treasury yields over the past few months caused headaches for investors by dragging many of their portfolios down. Bond yields, namely the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, dictate the interest rates on credit cards, mortgages and auto loans. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed that at this month’s post-meeting press conference, saying he couldn’t pinpoint exactly why yields rose so much in recent weeks. Hours before Powell’s post-meeting remarks, bond yields plunged following the Treasury Department’s quarterly refunding announcement. That’s as opposed to letting bond yields do the Fed’s work for it.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis Fed, , Powell’s, Wall, John Madziyire, Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Kalish, ” Powell, Celal, That’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Vanguard, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CNN, ” Bank of America, International Monetary Fund, Getty, Bank of America Locations: New York, Washington ,, Anadolu
Economists polled by FactSet expect U.S. inflation to have risen just 0.1% last month and 3.3% from the year-ago period. Cracks in consumer data Investors will also watch for the October retail sales data for insight into the consumer, who has thus far proven resilient even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. Investors will also be watching for the October producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, as well as housing data on Friday. Monday Nov. 13 Earnings: Tyson Foods Tuesday Nov. 14 8:30 a.m. CPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October) Earnings: Home Depot , Charles Schwab Wednesday Nov. 15 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Amy Magnotta, It's, There's, Gregory Daco, he'll, Ned Davis Research's, Joe Kalish, NDR's Kalish, Jeff Klingelhofer, Magnotta, Tyson, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Ategenos, FactSet, Thornburg Investment Management, Walmart, CPI, PPI, Retail, Palo Alto Networks, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, . New York Federal Reserve, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Body, Housing Locations: . New, NAHB, . Kansas, Bath
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors should be prepared for long-duration Treasury yields to reach 7% if the U.S. economy skirts a widely anticipated recession, Ned Davis Research warned in a note on Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are hovering near 16-year highs of 5% as investors price in rising U.S. federal deficits and the Federal Reserve's guidance that it will keep rates high until it is convinced that inflation is under control. Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Treasury sell-off could continue if the neutral rate of interest - the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary - rises due to a prolonged expansion. "So getting comfortable with a 5% 10-year Treasury is actually quite conservative," he wrote. With the potential for a worsening Treasury market sell-off, Kalish is bullish on gold and remains slightly underweight bonds, and favors large-cap equities over small-caps, he noted.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell, Treasury Department's, David Randall, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries
The 60/40 portfolio wasn't spared, either: The iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) , which has a 60/40 split, is facing declines from both asset classes. AOR YTD line AOR's performance year to date The slump harkened back to 2022, when equities fell alongside bonds. "We don't see rates going back to the pre-Covid levels," he said. "[I]nvestors still hate bonds at these levels — rates we would've dreamed of two years ago," said duQuesnay. Vanguard's Aliaga-Diaz noted that the 60/40 portfolio will average 6% on a 10-year forward-looking basis, so there are bound to be tumultuous times and periods of strong performance.
Persons: , wasn't, They're, Blair duQuesnay, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, duQuesnay, DuQuesnay, Joe Kalish, Ned Davis Organizations: Treasury, Dow Jones, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Vanguard, Fed, Ned Davis Research
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.
Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S
A key signal suggests monthly job growth could plummet in the coming months, according to Ned Davis Research. The research firm highlighted that a slow-down in temporary hiring services is the canary in the coal mine. The investment research firm highlighted a key leading indicator that is warning of a potential slowdown in hiring, and that's the hiring activities of temporary hiring services. And the two most recent job reports also came in below economist estimates, ending a more than year-long streak of better-than-expected job growth. Other factors that could limit future job growth includes tighter lending standards and a potential strike by the UAW and other unions.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, UAW, Employers
The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon
Insider is taking Juneteenth off on Monday, June 19. I wrote an out-of-office message to educate people and let them know I won't be checking email. Juneteenth recognizes the end of slavery in the US on June 19, 1865. Juneteenth recognizes the end of slavery in the US, when the Emancipation Proclamation reached Texas (then the most remote Confederate state) on June 19, 1865. On June 17, 2021, President Joe Biden signed a bill into law to make Juneteenth a national holiday.
Persons: Juneteenth, , Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Inc, Twitter, Nike, Juneteenth, Microsoft Locations: Texas
For five months now, tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the street every week to protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul that would give politicians greater sway over selecting judges. Critics see a threat to independence of the courts by the prime minister, who is on trial on graft charges he denies. Eisenkot, in an interview with Israel's Channel 12, called for the proposed legislation to be frozen for a year. Before the sun set on Saturday, ending the Jewish Sabbath, crowds once again gathered in Tel Aviv and other cities across Israel. Mira Marcus-Kalish, a university researcher, said she no longer keeps track of how many protests she attended.
The inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of an imminent recession. In July 2022, the inverted yield curve once again turned negative as the Fed continued to aggressively hike interest rates. But a Monday note from Ned Davis Research argues that the yield curve inversion indicator may no longer be a reliable leading indicator of a coming downturn. Kalish isn't alone in his skepticism of the yield curve inversion indicator. Cam Harvey, the economist and professor who first identified the yield curve as a reliable recession indicator, thinks this time is different.
Matt Little is a creative director from New York whose "Pizza Rat" video went viral in 2015. He says going viral didn't change his financial situation completely, but it makes him money today. A clip of "Pizza Rat" on the move, from Little's 2015 YouTube video. If you've seen Pizza Rat on late-night TV, ads, or events, it's likely been legally signed off by a licensing firm and me. Jukin helps find requests I get for the Pizza Rat video and brand, handles unlicensed usage, and helps ensure essential negotiation specifics are in deals.
Christmas can be a busy season for Uber and Lyft drivers taking passengers to their families' homes. Shelly Castle, 43, a Lyft driver in Houston, Texas: 'They wound up inviting me in and treating me to breakfast'Shelly Castle. Jonathan Gaurano, 29, an Uber driver in Los Angeles, California: 'I hatched a plan and set out to create an epic compilation video'Jonathan Gaurano. While this wasn't the first video I'd created incorporating Uber passengers, it was certainly my most popular. Bunny Rivera, 35, an Uber driver in Washington, DC: 'They refused to not give up and began chanting'Bunny Rivera and her son.
A 6-year-old was happy her mother lost her Meta job as they could "spend more time together." She told Insider she loved her job, but her daughter's response helped her process the news. Shelly Kalish, who joined Facebook in June last year, was among the 11,000 employees affected by the Meta layoffs last month. Later that day, Kalish took her youngest daughter for a walk and told her that she'd lost her job. The six-year-old also said: "I'm sorry you lost your job.
As the US emerged from the Great Recession, cheap real estate and the rise of e-commerce collided to create a warehousing boom. Now warehouse boomtowns shoot up in places like California's Inland Empire, Pennsylvania's Lehigh County, and Columbus, Ohio, and the number of warehouse workers has nearly tripled in a decade. Here, Insider explores how the rise of warehouses and warehouse work has changed the US and its citizens as we became a Warehouse Nation. A surge in warehouse workUsing data and on-the-ground reporting, Insider looked at the opportunities and hidden costs of the rise of warehouse work. Read more from 'Warehouse Nation'A look from Insider at how the warehouse boom has reshaped America.
The data are limited to base salaries and US-based jobs for visa-seeking employees. Still, sports betting is as much about sports as it is gambling and tech — growing industries known for high-paying jobs. The data included five US sports betting companies: BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Penn Interactive, and Rush Street Interactive. It included salaries for jobs such as a data engineer at DraftKings that would make $97,000 per year or more and a sports trading senior manager at FanDuel that would earn $130,000. A FanDuel software engineer based in New York would make $128,440, which is in the range of what TikTok has offered software engineers, the data shows.
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Ultimele momente de captivitate ale bufniţei, un exemplar adult din specia Saw-whet şi care a primit numele Rocky, au fost imortalizate de centrul Ravensbeard Wildlife într-un videoclip în care îngrijitoarea scoate mica pasăre dintr-o cutie şi îi dă drumul în pădure. ,,Eliberarea lui Rocky a fost un succes, este o mică pasăre rezistentă pe care suntem bucuroşi să o redăm naturii”, a spus directoarea şi fondatoarea centrului, Ellen Kalish, într-un scurt mesaj postat miercuri pe reţelele de socializare. Fotografiile din urmă cu o săptămână, când mica bufniţă, adăpostită într-o cutie de carton şi acoperită cu o flanelă, a fost adusă la centru, au fost distribuite de mii de persoane şi au contribuit la strângerea a 17.000 de dolari în beneficiul organizaţiei. Rocky, a cărei mărime nu depăşeşte 12 centimetri, a străbătut peste 270 de kilometri ascunsă în ramurile unui impunător brad norvegian care a fost tăiat în localitatea Oneonta. Bradul a fost transportat până în New York, unde bufniţa a fost descoperită de unul dintre profesioniştii însărcinaţi cu instalarea copacului în piaţa Rockefeller.
Persons: Rocky, Ellen Kalish Organizations: Rocky, Rockefeller Locations: bufniţă, New York
Bradul înalt de 23 de metri a fost adus în New York de la mare depărtare, iar bufnița s-a aflat în el în tot acest timp. Pasărea a fost descoperită de muncitorii care se ocupau de transportul bradului uriaș din Oneonta (statul New York) către orașul New York, aflat la 270 de kilometri distanță. Pasărea clandestină, denumită Rockefeller, a ajuns la centrul de animale pentru îngrijiri, după ce nu a mâncat și nu a băut nimic pe durata călătoriei din Oneonta către New York, care a durat trei zile. „Este uimitor că nu a fost zdrobită", a spus Ellen Kalish. Odată ce se va însănătoși, bufnița Rockefeller va fi eliberată în sălbăticie.
Persons: Ellen Kalish, Rockefeller Organizations: Rockefeller Locations: New York, Oneonta, SUA
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